Manchester long haul, is condor the answer

 Manchester Long Haul, is the answer condor?

I’ve well documented in the past few weeks about the woes of Manchester’s westbound long haul. It’s hard to decipher exactly what’s gone wrong, but it’s also decidedly tricky to work out how to fix it.

Put it this way, Virgin have shown that they are in no position to slip into Thomas Cooks routes, Aer Lingus have showed willing, but the lack of Premium Economy will always be a problem for the Manchester market. United and Delta clearly aren’t interested while American hold slots but remain absent. British Airways is a no go, after all, that’s what IAG have brought in Aer Lingus for, while Nowegian long haul, Norse or whatever they are calling themselves this week have shown no interest in Manchester long haul.

So what’s the solution, who is the best fit and where could we go from here?

My answer proves slightly controversial given the crossover, slightly complicated due to AOCs but also a slight stroke of genius, and that answer is Condor.

Condor of course was part of the Thomas Cook group. It had a similar ethos to the Thomas Cook U.K. one, similar product and even shared the sales platforms with Thomas Cook.

The split from the Thomas Cook group meant that Condors debts were almost wiped clean, and the airline has been able to forge its own path. It has signed a deal for new aircraft and looks to have a bright future. With the management team the same as Thomas Cooks (and this is why I stated the move could be controversial given the Thomas Cook management team walked into jobs at condor with a big round of applause, while TCXs staff were left redundant), who better to understand the Manchester market than Condor and it’s team?

The Thomas Cook brand itself has been purchased by FOSUN, and while they remain an online only dynamic package operator, their branding and packages have a warm sense of familiarity, and one that could use the Condor operation quite easily. So with that in mind, what could a potential condor operation at Manchester look like? Bear in mind this is completely hypothetical and not indicative to any plans.

Firstly, I would would use the Thomas Cook brand to launch beach/holiday destinations. Cancun, Varadero, Holguin, Montego Bay, Punta Cana and Orlando are either there for the taking or could easily support the extra frequency. This could be achieved with 2-3 aircraft initially, using aircraft in 3 classes of a small business cabin, premium economy and economy seats. I’ve decided to leave New York alone at this stage, as it is catered for with Virgin and Aer Lingus, and at this time, is better to let that route stabilise.

As time moves on, and the brand gains recognition and increased sales, city routes like Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle *could* be brought back online. Going even further into the future, Goa, St Lucia, Tobago and Antigua all remain stubbornly unserved. Of course, routes would rotate with seasonality, and some could even be ‘double drops’ if they so wished. CAA data showed healthy load factors of 85% and above on all routes, and operating similar to how Thomas Cook ran, at 2-4 weekly each, could make good headway into the Manchester market.

The main problem to overcome is gaining a U.K. AOC. It’s a costly and time consuming exercise, and would condor be willing to take the risk? It’s a lot of cost and complexity to take on for something that may not work like it did before. 

The Thomas Cook Manchester flights ran on a fleet of 6 A330’s, which any condor operation could run to the same scale. As stated earlier, no one has really stepped up to the Thomas Cook plate since their demise, and it was widely considered their long haul flights did incredibly well, while it’s legacy tour operator debts were the main cause of its demise.

It can be argued Manchester is missing a reliable, leisure focused long haul airline that is dedicated to Manchester in the way Thomas Cook was. Thomas Cook wasn’t just a brand at Manchester, it was a staple and held a lot of affection in the north west. Condor, essentially being Thomas Cook in disguise, has a ready made market just waiting for it’s arrival. They are back at Manchester next summer operating flights for Biblio travel, and I for one think they would be welcome to add a little more if they so wished…,