Manchester and eastbound long haul

 The Far East, Manchester’s bright spot.


My last article talked about how westbound long haul from Manchester has taken quite a battering, this article will discuss how eastbound long haul has fared a little better.


Now, this may have come as a surprise to a few. Let’s face it, large swathes of the east were still closed off as traffic began to rebound. Thailand had some very strict entry requirements, Singapore was all but closed, Australia and New Zealand were closed to pretty much anyone in or out and lastly China, well, they look like they won’t open to the world for a long time yet.


Yet despite this, we’ve seen airlines almost rush back to Manchester. 


-Turkish Airlines have been using the A330 more and more, increasing winter widebody operations higher than what it was pre-pandemic.

-Emirates were quick to reintroduce twice daily A380 operations, and recently had a series of 3rd daily flights with the B77W to meet demand

-Saudia have returned for a series of 3 weekly flights over December and January, with expectations to return fully in summer 2022

-Qatar quickly increased back to 2 daily with a mix of B77W, B787-8, B787-9 and A350-900. They are also slated to return to pre-pandemic 3 daily from March 27th.

-Cathay Pacific’s have returned, with a daily service (inbound) through Sept and Oct, but are going back to 3 weekly inbound and 1 weekly outbound (other 2 flights operate via European points). The political situation in Hong Kong means this is a route that is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels for quite a long time.

-Singapore Airlines was perhaps the biggest surprise. Even with Singapore closed off to tourists, it resumed flights in the summer, minus the Houston tag. That tag does return in December however, which is a further boost.

-Virgin Atlantic returned quickly to the Manchester-Islamabad route once the red list status ended. With PIA still banned by the U.K. and EU authorities barring wet lease charters, this is a route at will likely remain in strong demand.

-Pegasus have remained committed to Manchester and frankly fly under the radar for their eastern connections. They are one to watch for growth, as they seem quite a flexible airline.


Two carriers that did drop out unfortunately were Oman air and Hainan Airlines. The former relied heavily on Indian connections, to which India had a stint on our red list, and then closing its own borders. Hainan did return for some student charters, and will return again in January with further charters. But with China adopting prolonged border restrictions, it will be a long time before scheduled flights return.


So, what of the future for Manchester’s flights east. Here are a few of my predictions:


-Jazeera Airways were all set to start a 2 weekly Kuwait City to Manchester flight this winter, but a prolonged capacity restriction placed on Kuwait by the local government scuppered that plan. Word is, they are still committed to a Summer 2022 launch, so, this is one to watch.

-Virgin Atlantic have attempted to launch Delhi twice during the pandemic, but were scuppered by restrictions on both counts. With an exceptionally strong VFR demand, and on 2019 levels over 64,000 passenger potential, could it be 3rd time lucky launching the route?

-Could Oman Air return once demand stabilises? With an average load of over 80% during its tenure, and Oman aiming to increase tourism as well as transfers, it’s a route that I personally could see returning.

-Emirates previously ran 3 daily flights into Manchester. With demand still recovering going east, as well as the now glaring holes in the USA network, could Emirates be a good candidate for a 5th freedom USA route? They already serve DXB-MXP-JFK as well as DXB-ATH-EWR, so one could assume New York is out of the question. But, what about Chicago, Washington or Boston? Manchester isn’t far off the great circle routing for any of these routes, so could be a clever way of increasing capacity on several route pairings in one go?


With China remaining closed I don’t foresee a scheduled route between Manchester and that country for a while. Thailand (Bangkok) has the perennial yield issue, Tokyo and Seoul are too ‘niche’ for Manchester and India outside of Virgin seems frustratingly out of reach. So with that, the 4 predictions above are my main guesses.


What are your thoughts on the Manchester eastbound market? What future routes could you foresee? Let me know as ever.

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