2021. Will Manchester loose out?

 2021. Will Manchester lose out?


It’s no secret that 2020 has been shocking for many sectors, with travel and aviation being particularly hard bid around the globe, due to ongoing restrictions, lockdowns and things like PCR testing needed for travel.

But what does 2021 hold? Well, there’s been a few things recently which got me pondering this question, and a recent article was the final straw for jotting down my opinions. Now, I am fully aware my opinion is not the final say, so, if you have any thoughts yourself, I welcome any interaction either in the comments, or, on my twitter account @spd_travels.

So, the article. There was recently a piece written to express the comments made by IATA that secondary hubs will be the worst to suffer during and after the pandemic. A few airports were mentioned, like Düsseldorf, Geneva and Manchester, and that being secondary hubs they stand to loose out owing to a restructure back at the main hubs. Yes, some airports will loose out, but, I don’t necessarily agree with the list. For example, Gatwick may have an issue given Virgin Atlantic and Cathay Pacific have pulled out, British Airways retracted a lot of operations and Emirates have suspended flights until at least July, but that wasn’t mentioned.

What about Manchester. I appreciate my stance may have a pro-MAN stance, and I’m fully prepared for that to come under scrutiny, but I don’t think MAN is in quite as bad a position as some critics may have you believe.

First, the losses. Oman Air have gone for the time being, Westjet and Delta have suspended plans to start Manchester for now, and there may well be reductions in Virgin Atlantic’s USA schedules and Cathay Pacific’s schedules in time owing to market conditions and political issues in the respective markets.

But, Air Baltic, Nouvelair And Corendon, who all intended to start in 2020 have firmly committed to starting in 2021 instead, with tickets bookable on their websites. Virgin Atlantic now have a bigger operation in 2021 compared to their 2020 plan with 3 new routes in Islamabad, Delhi and Mumbai added to the roster of routes.

The ACL slot report has shown that Aer Lingus intend to add a Trans-Atlantic base, which is a huge piece of news in itself, wizzair want to add a 4 aircraft base and Ryanair intend to base 5 more aircraft at Manchester. There’s even more on top of that with SunExpress and Corendon adding more Turkish Routes, Easyjet adding capacity as well as the legacy carriers like KLM, Air France, TAP and British Airways all looking to add seats into MAN too. Does that seem like an airport potentially heading down a road to ‘being on the ropes’? Does that seem like MAN stands to loose a lot to main hubs? Im not convinced. Even if many of these flights in the ACL report don’t come to pass, it shows the intent was there and not a retreat of flights to main hubs.

Manchester is an airport of strong VFR and Leisure demand. This is what the bulk of carriers will be looking to capitalise on, on the road to recovery. Business travel is going to be severely surpressed for a while, and this is the VFR/leisure markets have a time to shine. What also needs to be considered is that Manchester reached nearly 30 million passengers, almost entirely off O&D demand. The number of transfers and transit passengers is merely a small fraction of its overall output. This means MAN actually isn’t subject to loosing status from the main hubs, as it was doing it ‘on its own’ anyway.

So, will Manchester lose out to main hubs in 2021? Personally, I don’t think it will. The jury is still out, of course, as there will be some losses, but there looks to be many gains. The scars of 2020 will take time to heal, but, Manchester certainly isn’t quite on the ropes just yet, there’s still a lot of fight in it for now!

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