Aer Lingus UK TATL

Aer Lingus could operate U.K. transatlantic Routes.


 On Monday 31st August, the Irish press had released a story. It was one of Aer Lingus, and their supposed efforts to operate trans Atlantic routes from the U.K. regions. A few people immediately wrote off the notion, however, delve a little deeper, and the idea isn’t as crazy as it sounds.

 As we all know by now, the world isn’t normal. Aviation is a sector that has been hit hard, and in this covid world, this also means airlines are having to turn its pre-conceived ideas on its head, and in some cases, do things they haven’t done before. (Or in the case of Aer Lingus, do something they haven’t done for a long time, given they have previously given the MAN-JFK route a crack in 1995).

So, what’s the plan that Aer Lingus have?



 Currently, the Irish Airline bases 2 of its new A321N at Shannon. With no end in sight for Irish restrictions on TATL routes, Aer Lingus are looking to move those 2 A321N to a U.K. airport, and run TATL from there. There are supposedly 6 airports in the frame, however, Manchester and Edinburgh have been specifically mentioned. The North American destinations are likely to be Boston and New York JFK, due to the aircrafts range.

 Aer Lingus are owned by IAG, who also own British Airways. This means there is a joined up strategy when it comes to the IAG companies. Aer Lingus is also rumoured to be entering the North Atlantic joint venture programme, whereby in the JV, it doesn’t matter who operates what, to where, as all the profits are equally shared regardless.

Why isn’t this plan as bonkers as it seems?



 This next bit, I’ll break down into bullet points. It will make an easier read!

 -The U.K. is looking to make an air bridge with New York. This means restrictions potentially could be eased quicker than those to Ireland, meaning these 2 aircraft have a better chance at being utilised.

 -Its been widely accepted that leisure travel, as well as VFR traffic, will bounce back quicker than business travel. This means markets like Manchester, which have traditionally been shunned for its high outbound leisure market, are suddenly seen as the attractive proposition due to its bounce back ability.

 -Aer Lingus will have good data on U.K. trans Atlantic potential, given they offer a robust connection service via its DUB hub. However, it will want a market that can sustain an A321N comfortably, but also not infringe on its DUB hub too much thus affecting the viability of its DUB TATL flights. This narrows down the potential to places like Manchester and Edinburgh, as they can offer that duel volume capability, one of filling it’s own plane as well as those at DUB. It also means that with these connections, the brand is also known to the U.K. and US originating passengers and not such an uphill struggle advertising wise.

 -The IAG link and London. The London market is likely to be vastly different going forward. If BA don’t go back to short haul at Gatwick, it could be forced to give up its lions share of those LGW slots under the ‘use them or loose them’ rules. This would cause consolidation at LHR. But then where do you go when things start bouncing back? LHR will be full, LGW will be full (Easyjet, Ryanair and Wizz likely battling for LGW supremacy), STN unlikely to be an attractive proposition and LTN full too. That means the UK regions could be in the frame. Therefore, these Aer Lingus flights could be the litmus paper, the placeholder, the beginning of a bigger IAG presence in the U.K. regions. And the lower density, lower cost base A321N could be the aircraft to do it.

 So, that’s why I think this idea isn’t as crazy as it sounds. It could actually be a very smart move that might, just might, pay off. Yes, it could all just be a negotiation ploy against the Irish Govt, or Shannon Airport itself for lower fees, but, it’s definatly one to watch.

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