Aer Lingus, where could they serve?

Aer Lingus, where could they serve.

It was until recently one of the worst kept ‘secrets’ in post-covid aviation. Aer Lingus were to set up a trans-Atlantic base at Manchester.

Plans have changed over the course of time. First 2 aircraft were to be based, then 4 aircraft, then 3 and now Donal Moriarty has been quoted in Irish media as saying 5 aircraft would be based at Manchester. But, where could those 5 aircraft serve?

So, firstly, let’s put down what we do know.

Initial routes will be New York and Boston, both daily and both using the A321N. Orlando will also be served, using the A330-300. All 3 are reasonably solid routes. Yes, Boston has had its ups and downs, but hopefully a lower cost base A321N, along with the AA/BA joint venture, could finally hold the key to unlocking the routes longevity.

But this leaves 2 aircraft, and what they could do.

Firstly, we don’t know the mix of these aircraft, but given the Caribbean has been touted, one can assume that one of the extra 2 planes will be an A330, and I personally think 3rd A321N will be based too. 

So, what routes? These are my guesses.

Chicago:

Was once a very busy route, supporting both an A330 and B767 side by side at one point in time. The route was pulled by American in recent years, but I firmly believed there was a managed decline in the route with abysmal on time performance, regular cancellations back in the early days of the B787 base at Chicago and then the switch back to old B767s towards the end of the routes life. 

For exactly the same reasons listed earlier about why Boston could work, this is also true for Chicago. At 3826nm, Manchester-Chicago sits well within the 4700 range of the A321N. The aircraft could be a right size plane for the route and offer connections at Chicago. Atlanta is a big transfer point for Virgin and Delta, Chicago could be this for Aer Lingus, British Airways and American. Daily flights to allow maximum connection flexibility is a good aim.

Las Vegas:

Has always been a popular route for Northern folk. At one point, the route had 10 flights a week between Virgin and Thomas Cook. Given leisure flying will be a focus of many airlines for the next 2-3 years, it was a surprise to me that Virgin pulled Las Vegas from Manchester, as surely should be a shoe-in for a renewed leisure focus? A 3 weekly flight should be more than realistic for a starting off point.

Antigua:

The Antiguan government recently went public with the news that Aer Lingus is potentially looking at linking Antigua to both Dublin and Manchester. This route has been served by Thomas Cook before their demise, and I believe could be a good route for Aer Lingus. I feel a 2 weekly flight to allow 7/10/14 night breaks is a realistic frequency.

St Lucia:

Once served by Virgin Atlantic, Thomas Cook and recently tried by TUI before travel bans put a stop to the route, a perennially popular island from the U.K. and could be another winner for Aer Lingus. Again, 2 weekly would be a sensible frequency.

Other contenders for a route could be Barbados (but served by TUI and Virgin so could be competitive), Punta Cana (served by BA from Gatwick) or even San Francisco (popular route for Aer Lingus at Dublin), but the above 4 are my ‘more realistic’ options.

So, these are my guesses for a 5 aircraft base. Let me know what you think over on the Twitter account, and as ever, thanks for reading.